BLACK mobile logo

united states

India-US interim trade deal - the four unanswered questions

February 9, 2026

India and the United States have announced an interim trade agreement that includes the US reducing tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%, while India has committed to purchasing $500 billion worth of US products over five years and lowering its tariffs on American industrial and agricultural goods. The deal has sparked significant domestic controversy in India, with opposition parties and trade analysts criticizing it as asymmetric and heavily favoring the United States, since American tariff reductions only apply to approximately 55% of Indian exports. Farmer unions are particularly concerned that reduced tariffs on US agricultural imports will undercut domestic producers and harm their incomes, prompting threats of intensified protests.

Who is affected

  • Indian farmers and farm unions (specifically the Samyukt Kisan Morcha)
  • Indian opposition parties and leaders (including former finance minister P Chidambaram)
  • Indian exporters (particularly in textiles, leather, and gems sectors)
  • US goods exporters
  • Indian consumers
  • Private sector companies in India (refiners, aircraft purchasers, importers)
  • Russia (as an oil supplier)
  • Indian domestic agricultural producers (in maize, soybean, dairy, and nuts)
  • Industry associations in India
  • Indian stock market investors

What action is being taken

  • Final negotiations for the trade agreement are under way
  • The US is lowering reciprocal tariffs from 50% to 18% on about 55% of Indian exports
  • Indian refiners are avoiding new Russian oil purchases
  • Some Russian oil deliveries to India are still scheduled
  • Farm unions are planning to intensify protests

Why it matters

  • This agreement represents a significant shift in India-US economic relations with potential long-term implications for India's trade policy, foreign policy independence, and domestic economy. The deal's asymmetric structure—where US tariff reductions apply to only 55% of Indian exports while India must reduce tariffs on all US industrial goods—could fundamentally alter India's trade balance and inflate its import bill. The ambiguity surrounding Russian oil purchases suggests the US may be using trade leverage to constrain India's foreign policy autonomy, particularly regarding its relationship with Russia. For Indian farmers, the agreement threatens their livelihoods through potential price undercutting from US agricultural imports, which could destabilize a politically sensitive sector that has already experienced major protests in recent years.

What's next

  • Final negotiations for the trade agreement will continue
  • Farm unions plan to intensify protests
  • The US will monitor whether India resumes Russian oil purchases "directly or indirectly" to determine whether the 25% import duty will be re-imposed

Read full article from source: BBC